At Stork Sports, it is our mission to give you the best tools that will help you increase your profit from football bets.
In order to do that, we’ve created highly sophisticated statistical models that transform years of data and research into one simple number: the probability (%) of a teams win.
Sure, but how does it work?
1 – Match Probabilities
When you’re about to place a bet in a football match you probably look at some statistics to find out if you’re doing a good bet. But how hard is it? There is a lot of different information that is available and sometimes it may confuse you more than it will help.
Utilizing data and statistics from several years, weighing, comparing and analyzing it, we input everything in our models. Soon enough, all that information that you took a lot of your time to search and study – Position, Points, Goals Scored and Conceded, Last Games, Etc – is handed to you in a simple way: the probability (%) of a teams win.
For us, the magic will be in the numbers, the stats, the historic and messy data. For you, the only magic will be all of this converted into one simple and easy to use information.
2 – Stork Sports Statistics and Betting Odds
Every match odd represents a probability. The thing is: not always the betting markets odds represent the true statistical odds that one team has to win the game. By measuring and comparing the true odds with the market’s odds, we can select the results that will direct us to a positive expected value (PEV).
> PEV is when the market odds are above those calculated by us, and therefore the expected profit margin is positive.
Example: Let’s take a look at the match “Chelsea vs Arsenal”, in the English Premier League 2016/17:
With our models, we knew that the fair odds for a Chelsea win would be 1.82, but the odds at Betfair was 2.05. So, although it wasn’t guaranteed that Chelsea would win, we had a positive expected profit in this game if we bet on them, given the odds.
3 – Picking the Right Games
Using our models and these analyses we can pick only games that we have an expected positive profit. This way we will certainly not win every game, but we do have a consistent profit over time – In the 2017/18 season, we had a successful favourites prevision rate of 72% on 6581 matches in 25 leagues. That’s 4738 favourite wins predicted correctly! If you stay true to our method and bet in our picks over time, you will have consistent profit. This is how we work, and this is how we can help you. Our biggest bet is in your win.