Hello,
If you ever bet on football matches you had to solve the following problem: what matches should I bet? Which team is most likely to win? Does the odds they are paying are worth the risk of losing my money?
Today we will tell you the secret that has helped many amateurs bettors become real professionals. This secret has helped people turn consistent loses into consistent profits. The best part is, anyone willing to dedicate yourself could learn and start winning in a short period of time. But you need to dedicate yourself and learn the methodology.
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First, let us tell you who we are and why we know this secret.
We are Stork Sports®, a company based in Brazil that has a vast experience in football prediction. The Stork Sports company was created in 2016 by a group of 4 football specialists that came up with a unique methodology to increase their betting profits. After making a lot of profit in the football market with this methodology, this group of people was tired of all the scams and false promises they saw on sports betting pages and websites and wanted to create a company that people could trust!
Since the beginning of the company we have predicted over 25000 games and have helped over 15000 people in 27 different countries. All of this using this secret technique for analyzing games.
We believe that everyone should know this powerful technique on how to analyze games and we will explain it to you now. The technique is called PFLA (Probabilistic Fair Lines Analysis) and we will explain to you in 3 easy steps.
Step 1 – Odds = Probabilities
The first thing you need to understand is that the odds of a game represent a probability. Let’s see an example:
Imagine Chelsea and Liverpool were playing today and the odds where:
Chelsea – 2.08, Draw – 4, Liverpool – 3.7
What you should see is that represents:
Chelsea – 48% (1/2.08), Draw – 25% (1/4), Liverpool – 27% (1/3.7)
Step 2 – Calculating the Fair Lines
The Fair Lines are the “real” probabilities for each game. You need to have a methodology to give each team a chance of winning. Let’s say that you got:
Chelsea – 55%, Draw – 22%, Liverpool – 23%
Step 3 – Compare Odds with Fair Lines
If you calculated Chelsea’s chance of winning is 55%, it is bigger than the 48% represented by the odds, so betting on Chelsea is a good choice. If you just bet on games that the fair lines probabilities are greater than the odds, you will win in the long run, that is a mathematical guarantee.
So the REAL SECRET is how to CALCULATE THE FAIR LINES. This is how we calculate the fair lines in the PFLA methodology:
The Stork Sports specialists that founded the company analyzed data from 50.000 matches in 25 different leagues in the past 10 years. They used highly advanced statistical and machine learning techniques to determine what information can give the best Fair Line estimate.
It is important to understand that the goal here is to have the best Fair Line estimate, not to predict with 100% sure who will win all the matches. You don’t need that to make a profit, you need a good Fair Line estimate.
Here is what they found out (this information is the key to good predictions):
- The most important information in predicting the Fair Lines are: Number of goals scored, Number of goals Conceded. This 2 informations are more powerful than the tables position, the number of points, the number of wins.
- The season’s number are better predictors of Fair Lines than short-term information. This is very important: the team’s numbers in the season are better predictors than information like last game result or players missing the game.
- The last game result or past season results tell us very little about what will happen in a game.
- Home court advantage is the most powerful information. You need to think twice when betting in teams playing away. Home teams win more than 55% of their games in almost all leagues.
- League specific information are valuable predictors. There are more predictable leagues and less predictable leagues, knowing this is very important.
Hopefully, this information will help you when analyzing your next matches.
We know it is a totally different approach most people have but we guarantee it will lead to better results. You are probably asking yourself some questions like:
- How can I calculate the exact fair line probability?
- Does this method work for every match? Every league?
- How do people use this in real life matches?
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Best of luck on your bets!
Stork Sports Team