The end of the 2017/2018 season is here and it is one of the most difficult times to predict football games!

We call it the “End of the Season Effect” and you probably already lost some games because of this effect.

Last place West Brom beat Manchester United – Classic “end of the season effect”

In the middle of the season, you can use a team’s past performance to estimate the team’s chance of winning a game. In simpler terms, the teams at the top of the table have a bigger chance of winning when playing teams in the bottom.

In the last weeks of the season, that relation becomes much weaker and another key factor can determine the outcome of a game: the team’s motivation.

You will find:

  • “Strong” teams that are not fighting for anything anymore, they may already have won the league title, secured a European cup spot or even not have any chance of winning anything or being relegated. They have real motivation to win the game.
  • “Weak” teams that are desperately fighting against relegation. These teams had poor performances all season long but now they play their survival in all games.
  • When this 2 kind of team meets, that is when the surprises happen!

Here are a few examples from the past weeks:

Manchester United 0 x 1 West Brom (04/15/2018)

West Brom 2 x 2 Liverpool (04/21/2018)

Rennes 1 x 2 Metz (04/14/2018)

Milan 0 x 1 Beneveto (04/21/2018)

Portimonense 0 x 1 Estoril (04/14/2018)

Feirense 2 x 1 Guimaraes (04/21/2018)

Analyzing the past performances all these teams have no chance of winning but the “end of the season effect” played a big part here!

Be careful with your analysis the next weeks!

You can always check our predictions for some extra help when predicting games! Subscribe to our newsletter and get the best matches predictions and related content!

Stork Sports Team

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