Statistics for Football Predictions – Short or Long term form?

Don’t have time to read? Here are the key points in this post:

• It is important to look at the team’s past form to predict future results
• The long term form (more than 10 matches) is a better way to predict results
• Short term results (less than 5 matches) are also important but they are NOT MORE important than the long term.

Should I look at the team’s last game performance or all-season performance? Which will help me predict the outcome of a match?

To answer this question we take a look at how the information from the past 3, 5, 10, 20, and 40 last games helps us predict future results.
We use the POINTS DIFFERENCE between the home and away teams BEFORE the match to measure how this affects the match’s results.
We use points per game so we can compare the results from all scenarios.

Points Difference = Home Average Points Last 3 Matches – Aways Average Points Last 3 Matches

So when we have a + POSITIVE points difference, it means that the HOME team has more points. When we have a – NEGATIVE points difference, it means that the AWAY team has more points.

We expect that when the HOME team has more points they have a greater chance of winning as they are probably the best team.

Here are the results:

As you can see the longest the form you are analyzing the best it predicts the matches outcome.

The important thing is: DON’T BE FOOLED BY A SHORT TERM FORM.
You should also take into account the long term form.

Don’t forget to check the other posts from this series:
Odds are just probabilities
The best statistics for football betting
Betting Strategies – why are they so important?
Betting Strategies – how to measure your results
How to win in football betting using statistics

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