Don’t have time to read? Here are the key points in this post:
– Match odds just represent probabilities
– Probabilities are the chances of each team to win
– Every betting decision is a risk/return analysis
– The greater the return the greater the risk
– You need to estimate probabilities if you want to win in sports betting
“Odds”: what it actually means?
Odds are just a representation of the teams’ chances to win a given match. If there are many people betting that team A will win the odds for team A to win will drop. On the other hand, if there are not many people betting on team A to win the odds will rise.
This is just a representation of how everybody is evaluating the chances of winning for each team.
Changing your mindset
Every time you see a match odds you need to instantly think about probabilities.
It is quite easy to transform odds in probabilities all you have to do is divide 1 for the odds.
1/odds = probabilities estimated by the market
How this can help me win?
If the real chances of a team winning are higher than what the market is expecting you have a winning strategy.
You won’t win every bet but you will win MORE than you will lose, and that is how you beat the market.
The SECRET to winning in football betting is to estimate good probabilities for each team and to bet only in matches where you believe the chances of winning are HIGHER then what the odds are representing.
How to estimate real chances/probabilities?
At Stork Sports, we use statistical models to estimate the most accurate chances for each team. We prepared a series of posts to help you understand how you can use these chances to win in sports betting.
Don’t forget to check the other posts from this series:
The best statistics for football betting
Statistics for Football Predictions – Short or Long term form?
Betting Strategies – why are they important?
Betting Strategies – how to measure your results
How to win in football betting using statistics
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